Dear Shadow Tribe,
AI and high-tech aren't just code. They are resource vampires. Data centers, chips, batteries, all suck up materials like never before. Demand's exploding, flipping supply chains. Business as usual? Forget it. Higher costs, bottlenecks, innovation hunts ahead. Here's the foundational breakdown: what resources matter, why, where they're dug up. We'll save the politics for another time.
The Surge in Demand
AI training a single model guzzles energy like a city. Data centers could hit 945 TWh globally by 2030. That is double today's. High-tech scales this: EVs, renewables, smart grids all pile on. Result? Critical minerals demand jumps at least 1.5x by 2040. Energy alone for AI swells 30% yearly. This strains mines, wells, refineries, logistics. Those interested in creating or protecting wealth need to understand this landscape.
Key Critical Resources
Energy (Electricity)
Rare Earth Elements (REE)
Lithium
Copper
Cobalt
Energy (Electricity)
Why needed: AI devours power—training, inference, cooling. Data centers could eat 4% of global electricity by 2030. High-tech grids, EVs amplify.
Where: Generated worldwide, but renewables (solar, wind) boom in China and US. Nuclear in US and France. Venezuela's massive oil reserves, natural gas, coal. Greenland's huge geothermal potential. Projections: US demand spikes 166 GW by 2030, half from data centers.
Where: Generated worldwide, but renewables (solar, wind) boom in China and US. Nuclear in US and France. Venezuela's massive oil reserves, natural gas, coal. Greenland's huge geothermal potential. Projections: US demand spikes 166 GW by 2030, half from data centers.
Rare Earth Elements (REE)
Why needed: Magnets for AI hardware, EVs, wind turbines, chips. Demand up 13% to 2026. Key for high-performance tech.
Where: Proven Reserves—China (1/3 global), Australia, US, Canada, Myanmar. Greenland has massive potential; Venezuela some. Output—China dominates, then Australia.
Where: Proven Reserves—China (1/3 global), Australia, US, Canada, Myanmar. Greenland has massive potential; Venezuela some. Output—China dominates, then Australia.
Lithium
Why needed: Batteries for data center backups, EVs, grid storage. AI triples demand by 2030. Enables energy-dense power.
Where: Reserves—Chile (largest), Australia, Argentina, China. Output—Australia (35%), Chile, China.
Where: Reserves—Chile (largest), Australia, Argentina, China. Output—Australia (35%), Chile, China.
Copper
Why needed: Wiring, cooling, power distribution in data centers, EVs. AI boosts demand 2% globally by 2030. Essential conductor.
Where: Reserves—Chile, Australia, Peru. Output—Chile (28%), Peru, DRC.
Where: Reserves—Chile, Australia, Peru. Output—Chile (28%), Peru, DRC.
Cobalt
Why needed: Battery stability for AI devices, EVs. Demand doubles by 2030. Boosts energy density.
Where: Reserves—DRC (55%), Indonesia, Russia. Output—DRC (70%), Indonesia.
Where: Reserves—DRC (55%), Indonesia, Russia. Output—DRC (70%), Indonesia.
Nickel
Why needed: High-energy battery cathodes for AI tech, EVs. Surge from data centers.
Where: Reserves—Indonesia, Australia. Output—Indonesia (50%), Philippines.
Where: Reserves—Indonesia, Australia. Output—Indonesia (50%), Philippines.
Graphite
Other Wildcards
Supply Chain Shifts
Why needed: Battery anodes for energy storage in AI grids. Demand up with batteries.
Where: Reserves—China dominant, Mozambique, Brazil. Output—China (65%).
Where: Reserves—China dominant, Mozambique, Brazil. Output—China (65%).
Other Wildcards
- Gallium/Germanium: For AI chips, power converters. Demand up 11% by 2030. Reserves—China heavy.
- Semiconductors: Not a mineral, but still a basic resource for new economy. Silicon-based; need REEs, gallium. Production: Taiwan utterly dominates (70% of global production). South Korea, China, US combine for about 20%; rest of world ~10%.
- Semiconductors: Not a mineral, but still a basic resource for new economy. Silicon-based; need REEs, gallium. Production: Taiwan utterly dominates (70% of global production). South Korea, China, US combine for about 20%; rest of world ~10%.
Supply Chain Shifts
Old chains crack. Shortfalls loom: Copper 30% gap by 2035, lithium large deficits in 2030s. Refining concentrates. 86% of key minerals in top three nations. Mining expands, but lead times lag (10+ years for new mines) due to regs and infrastructure demands. Recycling ramps, potentially cuts needs 25-40% by 2050, still not enough to keep up with demand. Prices volatile.
What This Means for Business As Usual
No more steady supplies. Intense competition for resources between nation-states. Costs spike: Energy bills up, materials pricier. Innovation pushes alternatives—like silicon-graphite batteries or efficiency hacks.
Diversify or die: Firms must hunt new sources, stockpile, partner for reserves. Opportunities? Mining ETFs, recycling tech, efficient AI. Chaos breeds wealth. Spot the plays early.
Sources/Further Reading
- https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025
- https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2025
- https://fpanalytics.foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2025/10/FPA-JCDREAM-October-2025-Part-2-final.pdf
Between Shadows and Light,
Cade Shadowlight ☠
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