AI training a single model guzzles energy like a city. Data centers could hit 945 TWh globally by 2030. That is double today's. High-tech scales this: EVs, renewables, smart grids all pile on. Result? Critical minerals demand jumps at least 1.5x by 2040. Energy alone for AI swells 30% yearly. This strains mines, wells, refineries, logistics. Those interested in creating or protecting wealth need to understand this landscape.
Energy (Electricity)
Where: Generated worldwide, but renewables (solar, wind) boom in China and US. Nuclear in US and France. Venezuela's massive oil reserves, natural gas, coal. Greenland's huge geothermal potential. Projections: US demand spikes 166 GW by 2030, half from data centers.
Rare Earth Elements (REE)
Where: Proven Reserves—China (1/3 global), Australia, US, Canada, Myanmar. Greenland has massive potential; Venezuela some. Output—China dominates, then Australia.
Lithium
Where: Reserves—Chile (largest), Australia, Argentina, China. Output—Australia (35%), Chile, China.
Copper
Where: Reserves—Chile, Australia, Peru. Output—Chile (28%), Peru, DRC.
Cobalt
Where: Reserves—DRC (55%), Indonesia, Russia. Output—DRC (70%), Indonesia.
Where: Reserves—Indonesia, Australia. Output—Indonesia (50%), Philippines.
Where: Reserves—China dominant, Mozambique, Brazil. Output—China (65%).
Other Wildcards
- Semiconductors: Not a mineral, but still a basic resource for new economy. Silicon-based; need REEs, gallium. Production: Taiwan utterly dominates (70% of global production). South Korea, China, US combine for about 20%; rest of world ~10%.
Supply Chain Shifts
Old chains crack. Shortfalls loom: Copper 30% gap by 2035, lithium large deficits in 2030s. Refining concentrates. 86% of key minerals in top three nations. Mining expands, but lead times lag (10+ years for new mines) due to regs and infrastructure demands. Recycling ramps, potentially cuts needs 25-40% by 2050, still not enough to keep up with demand. Prices volatile.
No more steady supplies. Intense competition for resources between nation-states. Costs spike: Energy bills up, materials pricier. Innovation pushes alternatives—like silicon-graphite batteries or efficiency hacks.
- https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025
- https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2025
- https://fpanalytics.foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2025/10/FPA-JCDREAM-October-2025-Part-2-final.pdf

